The biggest risk, as always, where we least expect it. His name – USDT. How would say an authoritative expert in the field of separation of power and alignment of business processes, a British citizen Brick (film "Snatch"): "you're walking on very thin ice, my friends." Therefore, our task: to know in advance what awaits us when the ice will crack. Many of us under him ready for a really Brick, which is all we have, as befits this gentleman, will be taken away. But we still try not to fail and not to lose.
Over the past two weeks Tether is the subject of information bullying.
- The blogger begins to hysteria about a game of Tether by pumping BTC;
- Tether cooperating with the audit company, this one did nothing accused;
- Became aware of the agenda of the securities Commission;
- Said that the agenda has already brought on 6 December (6-7 Dec BTC jumped to $ 6 000 against the inertia of up to 20 000).
The disposition of this. The refinement was not fired anyone, Bloomberg. This is clearly a planned action, because the source of the selected status, and the infopovod not the first freshness – he was held on December 6, almost two months have passed already. In the market bearish trend, analysts assert that the bottom is broken! We have a lot of "sheep" and "holders", they keep the orders and the wallets of hundreds of millions of dollars, listening to the news, and analysts. Pessimism manifests itself in a weak rebound from the resistance levels. But if you come a few more such news and the 10,000 will be completed – the sheep can not stand the nerves.
Simulate the situation.
The Commission stated that Tether trust, the inspection did not find violations and the amount of tokens corresponds to the volume of reserves (or other positive news).
How will this affect the market? This news optimism returned to traders and the belief in "eternal growth". So, interested parties attacks on the Tether is advantageous to announce it after the big sales and purchases on the lows. Accordingly, to the news that the voltage should force the sheep to begin the sale for fixing the damages. This option is advantageous for at least another 1-2 negative news – one of them on Friday!
What is the benefit of the beneficiaries Tether? For example, they really scraped out of coins and bought BTC. Then, if they had sold it for Fiat at levels 18 000-20 000, now they will be able to buy them at a minimum (6 000-8 000), then quickly disperse market news about the invited auditors and sell them for 20,000 to 25,000. To drive the money into your account, and the auditors will kindly say: so, the money from this company two times more than the issued coin.
This script can take 2 weeks! More over, it is beneficial for those who attack Tether– they can also be bought on the lows and capitalize on the rapid growth.
What is the weakness of this scenario? That is not clear: if the Tether is not released extra coins, why do they not talk about it publicly?
A statement about the collapse of the Tether.
Imagine that you wake up and read the news about the "masks-show" in the office of the Tether, the seizure of computers and arrest of the leadership. Once you regain consciousness after a heart attack, you will see that the market realized that USDT ≠ USD. Accordingly, USDT will begin to depreciate. The people quickly start buying everything that is not nailed for the sake of their money. BTC and alts soar in price to USDT. In fact, we can easily see 1 BTC = 1 000 000 USDT.
We will see the superinflyatsiya! Oh, it's going to be a bloodbath! Yesterday you had $ 100,000 and you could buy. 10 BTC, and tomorrow can't afford one. Panic and complete selling USDT. And someone will buy this USDT.
Wherein the first growth courses will begin on Fiat exchanges. But later, the people there will understand that USDT ≠ USD. And will is a situation that sellers of cryptocurrencies are many, but buyers with Fiat money is not enough. According to some estimates, up to 80% of transactions occur in pairs for USDT, which means you will be a glut in the market and reduced money supply to 20%. In fact the real money will be enough, and a lot of goods.
We will see superdelicious! There will be many wanting to sell BTC, but few buyers. The result will be a fall of BTC to the dollar.
In the end, it may be a situation when BTC to USD is $1 000, and USDT to BTC equal to 1 000 000.
Separately, I note that this outcome of the first will depreciate fast coins, for example, XRP. Imagine you see rabid inflation USDT, buy 1 ВТС for 50 000 USDT, and want to sell it for USD. You send the coins and the chain is hanging! All send! And you wait 3-4 days until your money comes to Fiat exchange and see kakutstha cheaper. People lose all their savings. Against this background, much wins XRP, which is everywhere and which comes in 1-2 minutes. So it will start buying on cryptomeria and actively sell to Fiat exchanges. Speculative difference is there will be more than BTC! To holdit it to Fiat exchanges especially dangerous! Yes, and in this situation XRP to rise strongly in the end - everyone will understand that speed is important! Maybe XRP is the beneficiary of the attack?
By the way food for thought on Sunday by the news of the audit USDT was an increase of XRP, at this point, we have transferred the money to Fiat exchange.
Will be announced about the collapse of the Tether, but later the statement void and USDT rehabilitated.
Here even more interesting. All repeats Scenario 2, and USDT to USD depreciated to ridiculous levels. However, after, say, 2 weeks (Chinese New year) the court declares that all right, USDT can trust, welcome to the table. Those who bought discounted USDTна a wave of panic selling BTC at a price of 1 000 000 of anything will get a huge profit at the expense of the recovery rate of 1 USD = 1 USDT. BTC will subsequently return to their levels in 10 000-20 000.
In this scenario, Tetherничем not at risk. They are a victim of circumstances! But to behave in a socially responsible manner, taking USDT have panicked people, to somehow save them money. And even more so, then the auditors will also say: everything is OK, they have enough reserves.
Maybe that's why Tether is silent?
The most important conclusions.
The media convince us that "the summons was handed over on 6 December". What Tether did issue, and bought BTC and inflated "bubble". But the bubble-inflated after December 6! So first, the Director of the Tether was given a summons, and then the firm released псевдоUSDT heating up market? Very strange and illogical:
If the agenda was already 6 December, they would have tried to conceal the fraud, and not to proceed with it;
The agenda, at least not associated with this growth, and hence the problem which they say is inflated;
If they wanted to throw all, it would be easier to run away with the money of the whole exchange.
The agenda of December 6, sharply reduces the likelihood of Scenario 2. Remain 1 and 3.
A large seen from a distance. He wants kit, made such information attack?Financial goal. The big players don't want to buy Vdsa $10,000 when all of these people for $500. It turns out for them the expense of richer citizens, and they are accustomed to, it was the opposite. How to get people to sell everything for a penny?
Political goals to the G20. Ruined people it is a good reason to prohibit something and begin to regulate. For example, deny all except XRP;
You need to destroy people? What people believe in the market?
- what is sure to be the rebound from the levels of 8,000;
- that will be an everlasting growth.
Therefore, one set for purchasing and wait, removing the lows and not allowing them to purchase big, others just holdat. The third Scenario will trigger all on sale and panic, and it will allow to redistribute wealth. In the first Scenario, people will close, scared, but will put orders 6 000-7 000. To destroy them will not work. The third Scenario would be to sell everything, but will not buy USDT for a penny, and will sell.
The third Scenario is more profitable and Tether because they will be unconditionally restored, and will be able to earn. And whales can achieve financial and political effect 10-100 times more. So it most likely!
For the implementation of the third Scenario should be at least 2 weeks - this week convinces people that there is no rollback. Induces depression. In the beginning of the next – failure (the network of the cue ball hanging the translations are 3-5 days), and superspreaders at the end. After a week or two rehabilitation just to the end of the Chinese new year and rally for a few days before it!
What to do?
1. Out of all the alt, especially the weak (they generally can not be restored);
2. Withdraw all the money using XRP to Fiat exchange;
3. Change XRP to fiat;
4. Not to play on small pullbacks (they are weak and have a chance to catch the third to fifth bottom!);
6. To put super order next week;
7. To sell at the end of next week 25% of the funds for the depreciation of USDT.